History & stories of success Essay

History is shaped by stories of success and failure in foreign policy. What we however fail, as the public, to really perceive is the cause behind the success or failure of an operation. The reason behind either situation lies in the investigative work thousands of agents, analysts and governmental officials conduct. Intelligence is a very essential source of valuable information for the governments who base their actions mainly on these reports. But what happens if the intelligence and analytical work is wrong? What are the possible consequences of conducting a foreign policy operation based on wrong intelligence? Is it possible that intelligence can be in this way intentionally misrepresented to serve the goals of a policy that would otherwise not have been approved of by the public as some conspiracies claim? And what kind of real life intelligence failure events has history known as a direct result of false information? Intelligence failure can have disastrous consequences on large numbers of people and hurt both the image and well-doing of a nation. The most renowned cases of intelligence failure in recent history are the WMD false reports in Iraq, the 9/11 intelligence failure to prevent the event and the famous war of Vietnam whose failure has and continues to brand the American foreign policy as doubtful. Each of these events has had its impacts on the regular lives of millions of people both in the United States and in places as far as Afghanistan and Iraq. And each of these events has lead to the death of thousands of American citizens, soldiers and millions of foreign citizens. Could this have been avoidable if the intelligence did not fail? Intelligence in its broadest definition is information and in the case of politics it means information that sheds light on the field of national security threats. It follows therefore that intelligence gathering is essential to the functioning of any country and in the case of the United States as a world super power, it is critical and existential. But as stated before intelligence failure has damaged the image of the United States in an almost un-repairable manner. The wrong reports about the presence of WMD in Iraq for instance lead to the killing of hundreds of thousands and the destabilization of a region that has become as a result the hotbed of terroristic activity. Failing to gather the intelligence needed to know beforehand about 9/11 and be able to prevent it lead also to the death of thousands of Americans and the invasion of Afghanistan; an action whose consequences is too detailed to go into now. Vietnam is an older case but remains nevertheless interesting to look closely at since the consequences of the intelligence failure in this case lead to the death of millions and a war that went on for twenty five years. It is ironic to reflect on the fact that this started with a wrong report from the intelligence agency, something that has lead the conspiracies to target the United States for creating cheap excuses to invade other countries and thereby damaged it international reputation. The Vietnam War was fought between the communist North Vietnam and the government of South Vietnam that was supported by the USA. The war was a war between capitalism and communism. It was a war between the Soviet Union and the United States. It was a struggle for world wide power between two superpowers engaged in a heated competition that has come to be characterized and termed as the era of the Cold War. The USA declared to have entered the war to prevent communism from taking over the south of Vietnam but historians and political analysts have since then come up with critical arguments on how the war initially started based on wrong intelligence. President Johnson was officially granted permission to attack the Vietcong after the intelligence received about a supposed second attack on U. S naval vessels in the Gulf of Tonkin. The attacks actually never happened and the war was thus based on a false report. The Tonkin incident lead to major US involvement in the region that would continue for another quarter of a century. The intelligence reports were simply misinterpreted. The intercept that apparently proved the second attack was wrongly translated according to recently published records of the account. The Vietnamese word â€Å"military operations† can also mean â€Å"long movement† and what the intercept actually refers to is not a second attack on U. S naval vessels but just the presence of two North Vietnamese patrol boats at a distance. What remains critically confusing in the aftermath of such an explanation is the government’s response to the event. Johnson moved the USA into a war that lasted for years and cost billions of dollars and thousands of American and Vietnamese lives on the foundation of a wrong and unverified intelligence report that has come to be one of the most embarrassing intelligence failures in U. S history. The question is how could this happen? How does intelligence failure occur? Intelligence failures can be categorized into several groups. Overestimation of information is the first case. The exaggeration of a report can lead to wrong conclusions and thus an intelligence failure. This happened in the Tonkin. The opposite case of underestimation of intelligence where the governmental agencies misinterpret the information and therefore give the enemy an opportunity to stay a step ahead is also possible. Over-confidence is the third case. The USA displayed too much confidence in the perfection of its intelligence system and its ability to win the war quickly. Overestimation and over-confidence lead to the disastrous war of Vietnam that could all have been preventable if the intelligence was verified accurately. Intelligence failure can be caused by several factors all affected by the political atmosphere and sentiments regarding the target of the intelligence. Prejudice and fear can obstruct the judgment and bring about an underestimation or overestimation of the enemy’s potential and intentions. This is how intelligence failure occurs and its consequences are the best exemplified in the case of Vietnam, Iraq and 9/11. The results of misinterpreted or missed intelligence can cause a lot of damage to a country and the United States as a world power needs to pay extra attention to the effectiveness of its intelligence regarding the effects a wrong foreign policy move can have on its status and power. References Grier, P. (2008). Declassified study puts Vietnam events in new light. Retrieved July 1,2009, from http://www. csmonitor. com/2008/0109/p04s01-usmi. html Goodman, MA. (2008). Failure of intelligence: the decline and fall of the CIA. Rowman and Littlefield Publishers. Reynolds, P. (2004). Long History of intelligence failures. Retrieved July 2, 2009, from http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/middle_east/3883605. stm